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☆ For US renters, the chance of owning a home is going from bad to worse
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-08 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —The American dream of homeownership is looking more like a nightmare. With inflation heating up again, the Federal Reserve is in no position to consider lowering interest rates at its upcoming meetings. That’s according to a New York Fed survey gauging consumers’ expectations of the housing market, released Monday. Consumers are gearing up for even bigger increases compared to the expected rise in mortgage rates over the next year, the New York Fed survey found. The issue of rent affordability is particularly pronounced in New York City, where housing costs have always been notoriously high compared to other parts of the country, absent a brief respite during the pandemic.

Persons: That’s, Kenny Lee, Aditya Bhave, Neel Kashkari, Bhave, ” Bhave, “, Perdue “, ”, Read, TikTok, Joe Biden, Brian Fung, Bytedance Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal, New, Fed, Zillow, Bank of America, CNN, Minneapolis, Bloomberg, United States Department of Labor, Seaboard Triumph Foods, Perdue, Labor Department, Seaboard, Labor, Packers Sanitation Services, Appeals, District of Columbia Circuit Locations: New York, New York City, Fayette, DOL, Sioux City , Iowa, Accomac , Virginia, China

☆ PPI is important because components feed into PCE, says Aditya Bhave
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPPI is important because components feed into PCE, says Aditya BhaveAditya Bhave, Senior U.S. Economist at Bank of America, discusses key inflation data this week.

Persons: Aditya Bhave Aditya Bhave Organizations: PPI, Senior U.S, Economist, Bank of America

☆ Don’t read too much into those Black Friday and Cyber Monday spending totals
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

“It shows the psychological mind frame of consumers,” said Mickey Chadha, vice president of corporate finance at Moody’s Investors Services, referring to holiday spending data. This year, dollar sales growth for the holidays in the United States is forecast to slow to 3.3% from 6% last year. It means the spending growth it reported was “driven by net-new demand, not simply higher prices,” Adobe said. The experts CNN spoke to were all in agreement: Holiday spending data — no matter how good or bad — doesn’t represent the state of the entire US economy. A report she coauthored with Chadha predicts holiday sales will grow “a fairly modest 1% to 3%” this year.

Persons: ”, Mickey Chadha, Aditya Bhave, David Paul Morris, That’s, Tamara Charm, Charm, ” Adobe, Chedly Louis, Chadha, Michael Zdinak, he’s, Bhave, that’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Moody’s Investors Services, Adobe Analytics, Adobe, P Global Market Intelligence, Bank of America, Bloomberg, Getty, Consumer, Consumers, McKinsey, CNN, Moody’s Investors Locations: New York, United States, That’s

“I have been consistently surprised at the resilience of consumer spending,” Christopher Waller, an influential member of the Fed’s board, said in a speech this month. “The acceleration of consumer spending on experiences (has) propelled us towards another outstanding quarter,” said CEO Jason Liberty. Wealthier households, in particular, have enjoyed substantial growth in home values and stock portfolios, which are likely juicing their spending. Spending on the bank's credit and debit cards by households with incomes below $50,000 has risen faster than spending by higher-earning clients. “Consumer spending across all segments from high to low has remained stable since March."

Persons: —, they've, ” Christopher Waller, ”, Jason Liberty, “, Tim Duy, they're, Julia Pollak, Sarah Wolfe, Morgan Stanley, Small, Bret Csencsitz, Aditya Bhave, Valerie Zaffina, Zaffina, Bhave, Biden, Christopher Suh, ___ Organizations: WASHINGTON, U.S, Federal Reserve, Royal Caribbean Group, Travelers, ZipRecruiter, Fed, Gotham, Bank of America, Visa Locations: U.S, New York City, COVID, Ramsey , New Jersey, I’m, Washington, New York

☆ A credit card Christmas: Taking on shopping debt carries more risk this holiday season
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( Melissa Repko | In Melissa-Repko | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This holiday season, shoppers who ring up purchases on credit cards will pay more interest if they carry balances from month to month after the Federal Reserve's string of rate hikes. Already, investors and retailers have paid closer attention to credit card payments — and some have cited them as a concern. The company, which has its own branded credit cards, has seen lower revenues from those cards because of costs associated with bad debt and related write-offs. Mitchell said student debt, auto loans and mortgages have all become bigger burdens in a high interest rate environment. For retailer-issued cards, the average interest rate is nearly 30%, a record high, according to data from Bankrate.

Persons: Alexi Rosenfeld, Aditya Bhave, Bhave, Taylor Swift, Wall, Adrian Mitchell, Mitchell, Doug McMillon, Tim Quinlan, Wells, Quinlan Organizations: Getty, Shoppers, Bank of America, Consumers, Walmart, U.S . Federal Reserve Locations: New York City, Wells Fargo

☆ We expect Q4 to be meaningfully softer than Q3, says BofA's Aditya Bhave
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe expect Q4 to be meaningfully softer than Q3, says BofA's Aditya BhaveAditya Bhave, Bank of America senior U.S. economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the bond market's outlook, the impact of broadly strong balance sheets on consumer spending, and more.

Persons: BofA's Aditya Bhave Aditya Bhave Organizations: Bank of America

☆ Today’s CPI data is concerning for the Fed, but it is not a backbreaker: BofA Securities’ Bhave
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailToday’s CPI data is concerning for the Fed, but it is not a backbreaker: BofA Securities’ BhaveAditya Bhave, BofA Securities U.S. senior economist, joins ‘Fast Money’ traders to discuss core inflation and headline inflation numbers from CPI.

Persons: Aditya Bhave Organizations: BofA Securities

☆ The market has shaken off government shutdowns in the past. Here's what Wall Street expects
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

A government shutdown looming on the horizon could dampen sentiment to start October even as Wall Street wraps up what's been a challenging month and quarter. Many market participants expect that the financial markets and economy will broadly shake off concerns from a shutdown as they have in the past. "The market's probably going to set it aside until or unless it starts to have a larger impact on behaviors." Economic impact Historically, government shutdowns have been relatively short-lived, though they have been longer and more disruptive recently. Meanwhile, Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, expects the government shutdown is "all bark and no bite" when it comes to market reaction.

Persons: Wells Fargo, Rob Haworth, Wells, Michael Pugliese, Bank's Haworth, Aditya Bhave, Jay Woods, Woods, Jeff Hirsch, Hirsch, Lamb Weston Organizations: RBC Capital Markets, Federal Reserve, U.S . Bank, Nasdaq, BEA, Bank of America U.S, Labor, Freedom Capital, Atlanta Fed's, PMI, Manufacturing, McCormick, ADP, Services PMI, Constellation Brands, Conagra, Consumer Credit Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ Stock market weakness could continue in week ahead as looming government shutdown adds to fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Headwinds are piling up for the market heading into the final week of the month, as September lives up to its reputation as a horrible month for Wall Street. Wolfe Research's Rob Ginsberg pointed out in a note this week that the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) doesn't suggest much fear in markets. "We have a potential shutdown in Washington, as well as the UAW strike, which could potentially create some volatility in jobs data in particular." But investors heading into the final trading week of September will likely see a continuation of those losses, if history is any indication. "We could see the market experience additional weakness over the next several weeks," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.

Persons: Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, VIX, Amy Wu Silverman, Aditya Bhave, Shannon Saccocia, Saccocia, there's, RBC's Wu Silverman, what's, Goldman Sachs, Scott Rubner, Sam Stovall, Michael Bloom, Jeff Cox Organizations: Wall, Dow Jones, Reserve, Bank of America U.S, UAW, CFRA, Costco Wholesale, Nike, Chicago, Dallas Fed, New, Richmond Fed, Costco, Micron, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, BEA, Auto, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI Locations: Washington, Detroit, . Kansas, Chicago, Michigan

☆ The Fed would be 'flying blind' on interest rate decisions after a government shutdown
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Could the Fed hike in December instead? Labor's consumer price index is a widely followed measure by the public and also figures into Fed calculations. While they aren't the only inflation gauges central bank officials use, not having them around in November would complicate the rate decision. Bank of America, though, expects the Fed to approve one more hike, which would take its key borrowing rate to a target range of 5.5%-5.75%. Correction: Another hike by the Fed would take its key borrowing rate to a target range of 5.5%-5.75%.

Persons: Aditya Bhave, Bhave, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Labor, Commerce, Bank of America U.S, Fed

☆ Powell's tone was hawkish, but the speech's content was not: PNC's Gus Faucher
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPowell's tone was hawkish, but the speech's content was not: PNC's Gus FaucherGus Faucher, chief economist at PNC, and Aditya Bhave, US senior economist at Bank of America, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the tone of Powell's comments, monetary policy going forward, and labor policy dynamics.

Persons: Gus Faucher Gus Faucher, Aditya Bhave Organizations: PNC, Bank of America

☆ Student loans will only be a modest headwind to consumers, says BofA's Aditya Bhave
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStudent loans will only be a modest headwind to consumers, says BofA's Aditya BhaveTerry Lundgren, TJL Advisors CEO, and Aditya Bhave, Aditya Bhave, Bank of America senior U.S. economist, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss retail sales, earnings, and the state of the consumer.

Persons: BofA's Aditya Bhave Terry Lundgren, Aditya Bhave Organizations: TJL, Bank of America

That has made it tricky to predict consumer spending. The swirl of confusing trends tees up a closely watched retail earnings season that could offer more clarity about consumers and the economy. As inflation cools, the growth of average hourly earnings has begun to outpace the rise in the consumer price index. He called low unemployment "the big offset that's helped consumer spending hang in." "I thought with all of the revenge travel that's been happening, that would impact consumer spending on goods," she said.

Persons: Aditya Bhave, that's, Andrew Garthwaite, That's, Levi Strauss, Chip Bergh, Michael Baker, Davidson, splurge, Baker, Taylor Swift, Davidson's Baker, Nikki Baird, she's, I'm, Corie Barry, headboards Organizations: Getty, Bank of America, Target, Walmart, JPMorgan, Wall, Federal Reserve, Credit Suisse, U.S, of Labor Statistics, CNBC, . Bureau, Labor, D.A, New York Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Board Locations: Waterbury , Connecticut, U.S, Italy

☆ Hollywood is helping boost the economy as fans flock to 'Barbie,' 'Oppenheimer,' and Taylor Swift's Eras Tour
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-05 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Taylor Swift's Eras Tour and "Barbenheimer" have been key drivers of consumer spending this year. "The Super Mario Bros. Movie" has also boosted theaters that are still struggling post-pandemic. "'Barbenheimer' likely drove the continued surge in year-on-year entertainment spending growth," analysts Shruti Mishra and Aditya Bhave wrote in a note. Nintendo/Universal"The Super Mario Bros. Bringing some more optimism to global economies is "The Super Mario Bros. Movie" — an animated adaptation of the Nintendo video game.

Persons: Taylor, Mario, quieten, hasn't, Swift, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Taylor Swift, Taylor Hill, Jamie Cox, Covid, Cox, Shruti Mishra, Aditya Bhave, Greta Gerwig's, Zelda Organizations: Mario Bros, Service, Hollywood, Federal Reserve, Institute, Harris Financial Group, Bank of America, AMC, Nintendo Locations: Wall, Silicon, Cincinnati , Ohio, what's, Philadelphia

☆ Fed would accept a mild recession if it brings down inflation, BofA Securities says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed would accept a mild recession if it brings down inflation, BofA Securities saysBank of America Securities' Aditya Bhave also discussed the tight labor market and its "chicken and egg" dynamic with the consumer.

Persons: Aditya Bhave Organizations: BofA Securities, Bank of America Securities

☆ As regional bank stock rally regains steam, investors should watch out for these spoilers
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Christina Cheddar Berk | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

With the Federal Reserve expected to pause its rate-hiking campaign at this week's meeting, regional banks stocks have made a comeback, but that doesn't mean all the trouble is in the rearview mirror. Still, the upward march resumed on Tuesday, begging the question of what's ahead for bank stocks. As the Treasury sells tens of billions of dollars in Treasury bills, it could pressure bank deposits. Graseck predicts that a reacceleration of deposit outflows would snuff out the bank stock rally. In addition, regional bank earnings estimates, which had been cut severely in March and April, had leveled off in May.

Persons: Jack Ablin, Ablin, outflows, SVB, Aditya Bhave, Bhave, Morgan Stanley, Betsy Graseck, Graseck, Nicholas Colas, Huntington Bancshares, Matt O'Connor, KeyCorp, Albin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Cresset, Silvergate, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, PacWest Bancorp, Bank of America, Treasury, DataTrek Research, Citizens Financial Group, Truist, Morgan Stanley U.S, Financials, CRE Conference, Deutsche Bank, TFC Locations: Silicon, Federal, U.S, 2Q23, New York

☆ Here's what's next for bank stocks after the failure of First Republic
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

First Republic's demise was the third regional bank failure since early March, when Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank folded within days of each other. There is cautious optimism on Wall Street that First Republic will be the last failure of this period. However, reports from other regional banks weren't nearly as dire, with many reporting that deposits had stabilized and were growing again. However, the failure of First Republic could cause some more turbulence, at least in the short-term, for both deposits and bank stocks. "We don't believe that regional banks are completely out of the woods," Wolfe Research chief investment strategist Chris Senyek said in a note to clients on Monday.

☆ Inflation is proven to be a little stickier than people expected, says Barclays' Venu Krishna
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation is proven to be a little stickier than people expected, says Barclays' Venu KrishnaVenu Krishna, head of US equity strategy with Barclays Investment Bank, and Aditya Bhave, Bank of America senior U.S. and global economist, join 'TechCheck' to discuss their thoughts on the market and the decline in European bank stocks.

☆ February is expected to have been a strong month for hiring and wage growth
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Economists expect hiring remained strong in February and that wages grew even faster than they did in January. Economists forecast 225,000 new jobs were added in February, lower than January's surprisingly strong 517,000 jobs, according to Dow Jones. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.4%. The persistently strong jobs market and hotter-than-expected January inflation data changed the outlook for the Fed. The futures market is now pricing an end point for Fed rate hikes near 5.75%, against the current target range of 4.50%-4.75%.

☆ Americans are about to put the brakes on spending, and that's got Wall Street analysts on alert. Here's why, and what it means for stocks.
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-04 | by ( Ryan Hogg | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Here's why spending is likely to slow down, and why it could mean more turmoil for markets. Retailers and others believe that consumer expenditure is likely to fall, after kicking off the first weeks of 2023 on the rise. Meanwhile, the Fed's preferred PCE inflation gauge showed a 1.8% jump in consumer expenditure that month, compared with December. It's fair to say most analysts weren't expecting consumer spending data to be so resilient in January — and some suggest those figures might be overblown. A dip in consumer spending might signal the beginning of a sustained drop in demand in the US.

☆ Wall Street is upping its expectations for rate hikes — and a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The outlook comes ahead of the central bank's March meeting when investors expect another quarter-percentage point — or 25 basis point — rate increase. Bank of America, for instance, said it thinks policymakers may have to take the benchmark funds rate to the 6% range. "This will likely lead to a recession, because the non-consumer sectors of the economy already look soft. In the Cleveland Fed white paper , the authors suggested the central bank reconsider its 2% inflation target because it isn't likely to achieve it anytime soon. It said core PCE inflation is likely to cool only to 2.75% by 2025, adding that "a deep recession would be necessary" for the Fed to achieve its goal.

☆ Bhave: The October CPI report signaled a step in the right direction for cooling down inflation
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBhave: The October CPI report signaled a step in the right direction for cooling down inflationAditya Bhave, Senior U.S. and Global Economist at Bank of America, joins Worldwide Exchange to discuss the impact of October's CPI report on the markets.

☆ Ongoing Fed rate increases are appropriate to fight hot labor market, says BofA's Aditya Bhave
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOngoing Fed rate increases are appropriate to fight hot labor market, says BofA's Aditya BhaveAditya Bhave, Bank of America senior U.S. economist, joins 'Power Lunch' to share his reaction to the September Fed meeting minutes, the wage inflation seen in the labor market, and the impact of a strong dollar on global economies.

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